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Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has a simple way to predict the future. The future is simply what rich people have today. The rich have chauffeurs. In the future, we will have driverless cars that chauffeur us all around. The rich have private bankers. In the future, we will all have robo-bankers.
One thing that we imagine that the rich have today are lives of leisure. So will our future be one in which we too have lives of leisure, and the machines are taking the sweat? We will be able to spend our time on more important things than simply feeding and housing ourselves?
Let’s turn to another chief economist. Andy Haldane is chief economist at the Bank of England. In November 2015, he predicted that 15 million jobs in the UK, roughly half of all jobs, were under threat from automation. You’d hope he knew what he was talking about.
AdvertisementAnd he’s not the only one making dire predictions. Politicians. Bankers. Industrialists. They’re all saying a similar thing.
“We need urgently to face the challenge of automation, robotics that could make so much of contemporary work redundant”, Jeremy Corbyn at the Labour Party Conference in September 2017.
“World Bank data has predicted that the proportion of jobs threatened by automation in India is 69 percent, 77 percent in China and as high as 85 percent in Ethiopia”, according to World Bank president Jim Yong Kim in 2016.
It really does sound like we might be facing the end of work as we know it.
Many of these fears can be traced back to a 2013 study from the University of Oxford. This made a much quoted prediction that 47% of jobs in the US were under threat of automation in the next two decades. Other more recent and detailed studies have made similar dramatic predictions.
Now, there’s a lot to criticize in the Oxford study. From a technical perspective, some of report’s predictions are clearly wrong. The report gives a 94% probability that bicycle repair person will be automated in the next two decades. And, as someone trying to build that future, I can reassure any bicycle repair person that there is zero chance that we will automate even small parts of your job anytime soon. The truth of the matter is no one has any real idea of the number of jobs at risk.
Even if we have as many as 47% of jobs automated, this won’t translate into 47% unemployment. One reason is that we might just work a shorter week. That was the case in the Industrial Revolution. Before the Industrial Revolution, many worked 60 hours per week. After the Industrial Revolution, work reduced to around 40 hours per week. The same could happen with the unfolding AI Revolution.
Another reason that 47% automation won’t translate into 47% unemployment is that all technologies create new jobs as well as destroy them. That’s been the case in the past, and we have no reason to suppose that it won’t be the case in the future. There is, however, no fundamental law of economics that requires the same number of jobs to be created as destroyed. In the past, more jobs were created than destroyed but it doesn’t have to be so in the future.
In the Industrial Revolution, machines took over many of the physical tasks we used to do. But we humans were still left with all the cognitive tasks. This time, as machines start to take on many of the cognitive tasks too, there’s the worrying question: what is left for us humans?
Some of my colleagues suggest there will be plenty of new jobs like robot repair person. I am entirely unconvinced by such claims. The thousands of people who used to paint and weld in most of our car factories got replaced by only a couple of robot repair people.
No, the new jobs will have to be doing jobs where either humans excel or where we choose not to have machines. But here’s the contradiction. In fifty to hundred years time, machines will be super-human. So it’s hard to imagine of any job where humans will remain better than the machines. This means the only jobs left will be those where we prefer humans to do them.
The AI Revolution then will be about rediscovering the things that make us human. Technically, machines will have become amazing artists. They will be able to write music to rival Bach, and paintings to match Picasso. But we’ll still prefer works produced by human artists.
These works will speak to the human experience. We will appreciate a human artist who speaks about love because we have this in common. No machine will truly experience love like we do.
As well as the artistic, there will be a re-appreciation of the artisan. Indeed, we see the beginnings of this already in hipster culture. We will appreciate more and more those things made by the human hand. Mass-produced goods made by machine will become cheap. But items made by hand will be rare and increasingly valuable.
Finally as social animals, we will also increasingly appreciate and value social interactions with other humans. So the most important human traits will be our social and emotional intelligence, as well as our artistic and artisan skills. The irony is that our technological future will not be about technology but all about our humanity.
Toby Walsh is Professor of Artificial Intelligence at the University of New South Wales, in Sydney, Australia. His new book, “Android Dreams: the past, present and future of Artificial Intelligence” was published in the UK by Hurst Publishers in September 2017. It’s available from the Guardian Bookshop. You can read more at his blog, http://thefutureofai.blogspot.com/
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I disagree (1).......with.......the idea that robots will onlybring benefits to people in thefuture.Robots will also have some (2)..negative...influences.Firstly, theywill be very expensive and we willspend too much money buying andfixing them.Secondly robots in factories will be able todo everythingn the workes do,so robots will make them jobless.Thirdlyrobots in our homes will doall he housework (3)...for.....us so we will become lazy and inactive (4)...In......short robots will do many thing for us,but they may not improve the quality ofour lives
Living in the country is something that people from the city often dream about. However, in reality, it has both advantages and ____disadvantages_______.
There are certainly many advantages to living in the country. First of all, you can enjoy __peace_____ and quiet. Morever, people are friendlier. Ther is less ___traffic___, so it is ___safer___for young children.
However, there are some disadvantages to life outside the city . Firstly, because there are __fewer___ people, you have few friends. In addition, entertainment is difficult to find, especially ____in___ the evening.
There are _____fewer___ shops and services, so it is hard to find __work_____. On the whole, the country is often the___best____ place for those people who are retired or who have young children.
1.According to the passage,living in the country has ________
A.only good points
B.only bad points
C.both good and bad points
D.no disadvantages
2.How many advantages does living in the country have?
A.two
B.three
C.four
D.no
3.Living in the country is safer for children because___________
A.there is less traffic
B.there are few shops
C.there are fewer people
D.there are fewer services
4.Which of the following statements is NOT true according to the passenger?
A.People in the country tend to be friendlier than people in the city.
B.It's hard to find entertainment in the country.
C.There are fewer shops and services in the country.
D.The country is only suitable for retired people.
5.Having few friends is_______
A.one of drawbacks to life in the country
B.the only disadvantage to living in the country
C.one of certain drawbacks to life outside the city.
D.one of certainad vantages to life outside the city
In this busy, (1) .........expensive.......... life, television is an easy and cheap source ofentertainment.
By watching international news, we are kept informed and up-to-date with breaking
news around the world.
Some shows and channels (like PBS and Discovery) offer (2) ..education...... programs that
can increase our knowledge and make us more aware of the world around us.
Do-it-yourself shows give us easy access to all kinds of information: Cooking channels
offer new recipes and methods, home improvement showsintroduce us to many
money-saving DIY tips, and financial (3) ........advisers............. give advice for managing finances
and investing money, for example. Television can also be a good way to help people
learn a different language.
Some shows can (4) ......motivate............... people who are interested in that fieldand help them
to pursue their dreams.
TV can expand your mind. Some shows let you travel vicariously and teachyou about
different people, (5) .........cultures............, ideas, and places you mightnever encounter in real
life. Watching a variety of shows might give us a broader understanding of the world we
live in and expose us to things we might otherwise never come across in our own lives.
Today, robots are used in factories all over the world because robots are more efficient and accurate than humans. Robots can work long hours without any salary and food, don't need sleep or rest, can't shake or shake like human hands do and can do jobs that people aren't available to. ready to do. It must be recognized that the ability of the robot to work is extremely durable, stable, low maintenance costs, high working efficiency. Using robots at work helps a lot for businesses in optimizing operations, saving costs, and improving the quality of the working environment. In addition, using robots can increase productivity at work, cause uniformity in product quality, safety for workers, but it is also harmful: Robots need a power supply. Volume, which can take the place of many people in factories, can store large amounts of data, but storing, accessing, and retrieving is not as efficient as the human brain. This limits how robots can help and interact with people, but robots are still useful for humans, so we still need robots.